China and Southeast Asia remain central to global pork market adjustments in 2026. Herd reductions, shifting trade policies, and persistent disease outbreaks define the regional outlook, Rabobank said in its Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2026 report.
China’s strategic herd reduction
China is cutting its sow herd to address oversupply. Leading companies reduced one million head between September 2025 and January 2026. Medium-sized producers followed, bringing the national herd down to 39 million in 2026, compared with 40.3 million in September 2025. This move aims to rebalance supply and demand while stabilizing prices.
Rabobank said trade tensions add further complexity. China imposed anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports, limiting supply options. Spanish pork remains banned due to African Swine Fever (ASF) concerns. These restrictions increase reliance on imports from Brazil, which expanded exports by 12% in 2025.
Southeast Asia’s disease challenges
ASF continues to spread in Vietnam and the Philippines, hindering recovery of local production. These outbreaks keep regional supply under pressure and increase reliance on imports.
Japan and the Philippines maintain bans on Spanish pork, citing ASF risks. This limits trade flows and forces importers to seek alternative suppliers, often turning to Brazil and the US despite their own challenges.
Regional trade volatility
Developments in other regions directly affect Asia’s markets.
- ✅ In the US, sow rebuilding remains slow due to biosecurity challenges. This limits export capacity, reducing supply options for Asian buyers.
- ✅ The EU faces ASF outbreaks in wild boars in Spain and anti-dumping duties from China. These factors weaken EU export competitiveness in Asia.
- ✅ Mexico introduced quotas for non-FTA suppliers and launched anti-dumping investigations into US pork. These measures tighten global trade flows, indirectly affecting Asian importers by reshaping supply chains.
For Asia, the implications are clear:
- ✅ China’s herd cuts reduce domestic supply, increasing import needs.
- ✅ ASF in Southeast Asia keeps local production weak.
- ✅ US and EU constraints limit available export volumes.
- ✅ Brazil’s export growth positions it as a key supplier to Asia.
Productivity as a global focus
Despite disease and trade disruptions, productivity improvement remains the industry’s priority. Producers across Asia and beyond are investing in biosecurity and herd management to sustain growth. These efforts are essential to offset volatility and ensure stable supply.