ASF keeps Southeast Asia dependent on imports in 2026

China, the largest producer and consumer, shows higher prices and greater volatility. This is driven by high feed costs, recurrent disease, and inconsistent productivity.

Brazil has seen prices soften recently, reflecting well-supplied conditions from increased production or slower exports. Yet Ms Pan warned volatility will persist in 2026.

“It will intensify as African swine fever (ASF) cases in Spain have just emerged… and the US-China trade flow [remains] unpredictable,” she cautioned.

Disease pressures and structural change

Biosecurity remains a global challenge, with ASF, FMD, and PRRS continuing to spread. Ms Pan stressed that “ASF continues to spread in Asia…fragmented farming structures make prevention extremely difficult.”

She added that the industry needs further investment in biosecurity and better housing solutions. ASF outbreaks in Spain have already impacted local prices.

Disease pressures are accelerating structural change. In China, large-scale operations have expanded quickly while smallholders exit due to costs and disease management difficulties.

New technologies such as sensors, early detection systems, and environment controls are increasingly adopted. Gene-edited genetics are already gaining approval in several countries.

Trade dynamics

Global pork trade has been more volatile than beef or chicken. China’s import demand remains a key driver of these fluctuations.

Imports surged in 2020–2021 due to ASF shortages. Recovery and demographic shifts have since narrowed the supply-demand gap.

“We expect China’s imports to stay more or less at the current level in 2026,” Ms Pan explained.

Southeast Asia shows a different trend. The Philippines and Vietnam have increased imports due to supply shortages caused by disease outbreaks.

This highlights Southeast Asia’s reliance on external supply, particularly from Brazil, which benefits from competitive costs and stable feed prices.

Regional outlook: Asia and beyond

Regions face both cyclical and structural factors. Europe’s modest growth is offset by export pressures after ASF outbreaks in Spain.

North America is increasing production despite limited sow herd growth. Brazil continues expanding exports, supported by stable feed costs.

For Asia, the picture is mixed:

• ✅ China: Production will decline in late 2026 as capacity cuts take effect. The industry shifts focus from volume to value growth.
• ✅ Southeast Asia: ASF remains persistent, limiting recovery. The Philippines and Vietnam face tight supply, keeping imports high. Brazil benefits from this demand.

“Southeast Asia will continue to struggle with ASF,” said Ms Pan. “The Philippines and Vietnam will likely continue to face tight supply in 2026.”

Future pathways and global linkages

The pork industry in Southeast Asia faces cautious optimism, with strong demand tempered by disease risks and reliance on imports.

Growth in Europe, North America, Brazil, and China will directly influence supply access and pricing trends across Asia.

As Ms Pan emphasized, the region’s future depends not only on resilience but also on adapting to global shifts in production, trade, and technology.