China’s pork giants are pressing expansion even as authorities urge restraint. In 2025, 39 enterprises slaughtering over one million hogs produced 295 million head, accounting for 41% of national output. Nearly all increased production, many with double‑digit growth. Smaller farms cut output, underscoring consolidation across the sector.
Government meetings in 2025 sought to cap sow numbers and cancel subsidies. Yet companies pressed ahead, aiming to spread fixed costs across larger volumes. The result is persistent oversupply, despite modest sow inventory declines late in the year.
Prices fall as demand weakens
Oversupply has collided with weak consumer demand. Average hog prices fell 25% year-on-year by December 2025, with consumer pork prices down 14.6%, the steepest decline among food categories.
Food service traffic has slowed, and competing proteins—poultry, beef, lamb—undermine pork consumption. Even seasonal peaks failed to lift prices. The traditional hog cycle remains disrupted, leaving companies struggling to balance volume gains against revenue losses.
Giants jockey for dominance
Three firms dominate expansion:
- ✅ Muyuan Foodstuff: 78 million hogs in 2025, up 6.4 million.
- ✅ Wens Foodstuff: 40 million head, expanding by 10.3 million.
- ✅Twins Group: 26.4 million head, adding 8.7 million, while merging with bankrupt Zhengbang Technology.
Twins’ strategy emphasizes low margins and high volume. By absorbing Zhengbang’s assets and pursuing an IPO, it aims to surpass Wens and challenge Muyuan. Analysts expect Twins to leverage feed cost advantages and supply chain investments to reshape competition.
Feed industry implications
Most hog giants are also major feed manufacturers. Twins, already the world’s largest pig feed producer, is consolidating control over feed sources. Competitors like Haid and New Hope face pressure to match its cost efficiencies.
This integration strengthens the “company + farmer” model, recruiting independent producers while tightening control over inputs. Analysts predict further consolidation, with mid-size firms struggling to survive against giants with scale economies and capital access.
Capital keeps the wheel turning
Despite losses, investment continues flowing into the sector. Capital controls, banking policies, and the collapse of property markets channel funds into livestock. Companies endure downturns, waiting for the next profitable cycle.
The industry’s resilience reflects both financial structures and entrenched expectations. Even bankrupt firms like Zhengbang reemerge through mergers, underscoring the persistence of overcapacity.