Forecasts suggest Japan will consume 2.3 million tons of pork by 2035, with imports becoming a larger share of supply.
Driven by increasing demand, Japan ‘s pork market is expected to continue its upward consumption trend over the next decade, according to a new report by IndexBox .
Market performance is forecast to remain steady, with an anticipated CAGR of 0.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035. By 2035, market volume is projected to reach 2.3 million tons.
In value terms, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.8%, reaching USD 8.7 billion by end-2035.
Pork consumption trends
In 2024, pork consumption in Japan amounted to 2.3 million tons, rising 2.3% compared with 2023. Growth remains mild but steady.
The fastest growth occurred in 2016, when consumption rose 4.6% year-on-year. Pork consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to remain stable in the near term.
The market value expanded to USD 7.1 billion in 2024, up 3% from 2023. This figure reflects producer and importer revenues, excluding logistics and retail margins.
Between 2013 and 2024, market value grew at an average annual rate of 1.5%, although fluctuations were recorded during the period.
Production patterns
Pork production contracted slightly to 1.3 million tons in 2024, almost unchanged from 2023. Overall, production shows a flat trajectory.
The strongest growth was in 2020, when production rose 2.1%. Output peaked at 1.3 million tons in 2021, then flattened through 2024.
In value terms, pork production shrank to USD 11.6 billion in 2024. Production hit a record USD 14.9 billion in 2016 but declined afterwards.
The number of pigs slaughtered fell to 17 million heads in 2024, unchanged from 2023. Both animal numbers and yields showed little variation over time.
Imports and key suppliers
Imports rose sharply in 2024, reaching 979,000 tons, up 6.1% from 2023. Average annual growth from 2013 to 2024 was 2.6%.
Growth was most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 12%. Imports peaked at 979,000 tons in 2022, but failed to regain momentum in 2023-2024.
In value terms, imports expanded to USD 4.3 billion in 2024. Growth was fastest in 2016 when imports rose by 19%, however, overall, the trend pattern was relatively flat. In the review period, imports peaked at USD 4.6 billion in 2019.
The main suppliers in 2024:
Together, these three countries supplied 65% of Japan’s imports. Mexico, Brazil, Denmark, Chile, France, and the Netherlands accounted for another 33-34%.
From 2013 to 2024, Brazil recorded the fastest growth, with a CAGR of 108.3% in volume and 101.7% in value, outpacing other suppliers.
Imports by type
Japan’s pork imports in 2024 consisted mainly of:
From 2013 to 2024, fresh or chilled carcasses showed the fastest growth, with a CAGR of 47.2% in volume and 38.1% in value Other categories grew more modestly.
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