Japan’s pork industry is expected to remain stable in 2026, with production, consumption, and imports projected at levels similar to 2025. The latest GAIN report by the USDA-FAS noted that high costs and limited expansion opportunities continue to shape the sector.
Heat, costs, and production pressures
Extreme heat in 2025 reduced breeding rates and piglet production, while imports of breeding pigs declined. Producers are maintaining current operational scales rather than expanding.
Slaughter numbers are forecast to remain steady in 2026, keeping pork production flat. Domestic carcass prices stayed high in 2025, reflecting strong demand and reduced shipments.
Elevated feed and energy costs, combined with soaring construction expenses, discourage expansion. Producers are expected to focus on efficiency rather than growth.
Consumers keep pork on the table
Pork consumption in 2026 is projected to hold at 2025 levels. Price-sensitive consumers continue to favor pork and chicken as affordable substitutes for beef.
Retail pork purchases rose 2% year-on-year in 2025, while processed pork products declined due to higher raw material costs. Dining-out frequency fell in some segments as higher per-customer spending limited visits.
- ✅ Yakiniku restaurants saw fewer customers compared to 2024.
- ✅ Chinese restaurants, with extensive pork menus, experienced slower sales in late 2025.
- ✅ Home cooking gained traction as households sought cost savings.
Trade shifts after Spanish ASF ban
Japan’s pork imports are expected to remain flat in 2026 despite disruptions in supply. The USDA-FAS report highlighted the November 2025 suspension of Spanish pork imports, following African swine fever (ASF) confirmation, which removed a major supplier.
Spain had accounted for 15% of total imports and 30% of frozen pork imports. Japanese companies are diversifying sourcing, turning to South America while maintaining imports from North America.
Frozen pork imports decreased 9% in 2025, while chilled pork faced downward pressure from premium pricing. Brazilian pork imports rose significantly, largely substituting for European supply. US pork shipments declined due to high domestic prices and unfavorable exchange rates.