South Korea’s pork industry rebounds after ASF and heat stress

ASF outbreaks test resilience

The first half of 2026 was marked by ASF outbreaks across several provinces, including South Jeolla and South Gyeongsang. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs confirmed 24 farm detections in Q1 alone, leading to the culling of about 150,000 pigs—roughly 1.3% of the national herd. 

The outbreaks were traced to contaminated feed containing blood plasma protein. While the losses were significant, swift containment measures limited further spread, and production began recovering by mid‑year. 

Heat waves intensify production risks

Beyond disease, prolonged heat waves have emerged as another challenge. More than 30,000 pigs died from heat stress by early August 2026, following record losses of 172,000 pigs in 2025. Rising electricity costs for cooling systems compound the problem, raising production expenses and threatening productivity. Analysts warn that climate volatility could remain a persistent risk for the sector. Sustained high temperatures may continue to undermine herd health and increase costs for producers. 

Pork production stabilizes after setbacks

The report estimates a slight decline in 2026 slaughter numbers due to ASF‑related losses and temporary movement restrictions. However, the impact is expected to remain limited, with recovery in the second half of the year offsetting early declines. 

By 2027, slaughter numbers are forecast to stabilize, supported by herd rebuilding and stronger sow productivity. This gradual rebound reflects the industry’s ability to recover from short‑term shocks. 

Imports surge before easing

South Korea’s pork imports surged in early 2026, fueled by competitively priced European pork. However, imports are expected to moderate in the second half of the year as domestic production recovers. 

Looking ahead to 2027, imports are projected to decline slightly, reflecting reduced demand as local supply strengthens. This shift underscores the balance between international trade and domestic resilience. 

Consumption remains strong

Despite production challenges, pork consumption continues to grow. Price competitiveness against beef and steady consumer demand underpin this trend. As inflation pressures households, many consumers are shifting from beef to pork, chicken, and fish. 

This substitution effect has reinforced pork’s role as the most affordable protein option, ensuring sustained demand through 2026 and 2027. Pork’s appeal as a versatile and accessible meat remains central to its market strength. 

The USDA‑FAS report underscores both the resilience and vulnerabilities of South Korea’s pork industry. Disease outbreaks and climate stress remain critical risks, but productivity gains and consumer demand provide a strong foundation for recovery. 

With government support for technology adoption and herd management, the sector is positioned to stabilize and expand modestly in the coming years. The industry’s ability to adapt will determine how well it sustains growth amid ongoing challenges.